Trade shows run in life cycles, just slighty lagging their respective industry, technology or market.  Some observations about technology events that signal the maturity of the industry, and influence investor assessments.

1) Run by engineers, technologists and academia.  This is the formative stage where competing ideas and approaches are fighting to be the solution, standard or idealogical purity.

2) Commercialization shows up.  This season is signalled by the arrival of product managers as participants and the first sales people lurking the halls and hotels trying to setup opportunities.

3) Commercialization grows and needs its own place.  Now there’s usually a ‘conference’ and a ‘trade show’ co-located to make it easy for attendees.  Booths are minimalist and usually banner and just a good place to meet.

4) Maturation.  Marketing dollars start flowing in here.  There is significant promotion and business in selling floor space to the show and registration to the conference.  Technologist start to grumble.  Booths grow in size and height, and marketing professionals appear.  The first financial analysts show up to track big and upcoming companies.

5) Explosive growth.  Now there is a (or multiple) conferences, a huge show floor, private rooms in hotels for stealth products, participants from all parts of the industry.  The show floor has professionals who memorize  their schtick, booth babes, etc.  After show parties become elaborate and expensive.  Salespeople start to grumble.  The pinnacle of an industry show with in the overhype era is…live music acts on the floor.   Over-priced and only satisifying to the show organizer.

What happens next is up to the marketplace.  Consolidation, re-focus, sector rotation or extinction?  How often does a trade show resemble a trip to Abilene? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abilene_paradox